Project both attacks
Each team receives an expected goals estimate adjusted for opponent strength, venue and recent form — the foundation for scorelines and totals.
Expected goals
Use expected goals to price the match — not just to describe it.
xG is useful when it becomes a decision tool: projected scores, fair American odds and a side-by-side sportsbook comparison. This page explains that workflow and how it shows up inside CC Analytics.
From xG to a bet
Four steps that keep the price honest.
Simulate the scoreboard
Those rates feed likely final scores. Moneyline, draw, totals and team totals are then derived from the same distribution instead of separate opinions.
Publish a fair price
Model probability is converted to American odds so you can compare the board number to the book without mental gymnastics.
Extend to players
Shot, SOT, goal and assist props inherit the team environment. Details live on soccer player props.
What xG is — and is not
A research input, not a magic number.
Useful for
- Judging whether a total is too high or too low versus the projected score
- Separating finishing variance from underlying chance quality
- Connecting team totals to player shot and goal markets
- Building a consistent slate-wide price check
Not a substitute for
- Confirmed lineups, minutes and role changes
- Market timing and available sportsbook prices
- Bankroll limits and responsible wagering
- Reading the full published record, including losing seasons
On the board
Where expected goals show up in the product.
Match layer
- Expected goals for both teams
- Most likely final scorelines
- Fair odds beside sportsbook prices
- Full coverage on soccer betting projections
- Moneyline and DNB detail on soccer match odds
- Totals workflow on soccer totals projections
- Fair price primer on fair odds explained
- Premier League entry on Premier League projections
- Serie A on Serie A betting projections
- BTTS from the same xG distribution on soccer BTTS projections
Access
- Website: $100
- Website + picks: $250
- Monthly website + picks: $50/mo
- Sales via DM to @thebestwager — no checkout here
Soccer access
See expected goals next to the price before you bet.
Request website or picks access on X. Adults 21+ only; historical results do not guarantee future performance.
Message @thebestwager on XMessage @thebestwager on X for accessOpen X DM