Model probability
Each market starts with an estimated chance of the outcome — for example 55% for a favorite or 42% for an over.
Fair odds
Fair odds are the model’s price — not the book’s sticker.
A fair American price is just the model probability expressed as odds without sportsbook juice. Comparing that number to the available book price is how members decide whether a wager has positive expected value.
The conversion
From probability to American odds — and back.
Fair American price
Above 50%: negative odds = −(p / (1 − p)) × 100. Below 50%: positive odds = ((1 − p) / p) × 100. That is the no-vig fair price.
Book implied probability
Sportsbook odds reverse the same math, then add juice so both sides sum above 100%. The gap is the house edge.
Expected value
If the book pays more than the fair price (or implies a lower probability than the model), the wager has positive EV at that number.
On the product
Fair price beside the best available book.
What members see
- Model probability and fair American odds for each market
- Best available sportsbook price next to the fair number
- Soccer match, totals and props on soccer betting projections
- CBB spreads and totals on college basketball projections
Start free
- Convert odds ↔ probability on the fair-odds calculator
- Rough EV vs a second book price you enter
- Asian handicap prices on soccer Asian handicap projections
- Deeper soccer context on expected goals betting
- Answers on pricing and access in the FAQ
- Posted price vs close on closing line value
- Column guide on how to read the board
Full board
See fair odds on every modeled game — not one converter.
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